makro ekonomi Josua Pardede twin deficit surplus neraca dagang Indonesia capital outflow the fed safe-haven assets obligasi defisit fiskal neraca transaksi berjalan BI rate suku bunga global divergent Risk-off Sentimen Risk-off Pasar Negara Berkembang Permata Institute of Economic Research (PIER)

neraca transaksi berjalan surplus neraca transaksi berjalan Badan Kebijakan Fiskal BKF